Unlikely Crypto Scenarios: What if Satoshi Returned?

After a critical crypto winter that many feared would never come to an end, Bitcoin managed to make a remarkable comeback and, in a phoenix-like fashion, gain back almost all of the value it had lost throughout the past bear market, as shown by the Bitcoin price chart. With the asset continuing to push toward higher highs, with a 50% increase over the past month, people’s imagination is starting to run wild, putting forward all sorts of narratives and theories, ranging from plausible to downright fantastic.  

If the trailblazing asset could rise from its ashes despite so many voices predicting its demise, anything is possible. One of these imaginary scenarios centers around the return of Bitcoin’s founding father, known under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, a figure whose entire existence and disappearance are shrouded in mystery. The common belief is that Satoshi will never reenter an industry that they bid farewell to 13 years ago.

However, there’s no harm in indulging in potential scenarios, as improbable as they might be. Just because the likelihood of Satoshi making a comeback and revealing his identity is slim and getting slimmer doesn’t mean it’s completely far-fetched to think it could happen. And if it does, it would be good to know what to expect because even if some see it as a positive event, it could, in fact, have quite adverse consequences for the crypto market.

Satoshi’s emergence and strange disappearance

Satoshi got into the public eye in 2008 when they penned and published the Bitcoin Whitepaper. The document titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System outlined the structure, protocol, and vision for the Bitcoin network. The project was launched one year later, and the rest is history.

During Bitcoin’s early years, when digital assets were still an obscure and rather odd asset class that people didn’t think much of, Satoshi was quite active on cryptocurrency forums, interacting with crypto enthusiasts regularly and communicating with other developers via emails.

Then, in 2011, after sending one final email to a fellow developer saying they had moved on to other things, Satoshi simply vanished into thin air. It’s been radio silence ever since, except for one isolated instance in 2014 when Satoshi briefly reemerged on the P2P Foundation website to post a short message debunking a fake story about their identity.

To this day, no one knows who hides behind this now-famous pseudonym or whether Bitcoin was created by a group of people rather than an individual hit by a stroke of genius. Obviously, there has been ample speculation about Satoshi’s identity and the reasons that prompted them to step out of the spotlight. Hal Finney, Dorian Nakamoto, Nick Szabo and Craig Wright are some of the people believed to be Satoshi, but research has revealed none of them fit the bill.

Some presume that they might be dead, but judging by their last known message, Satoshi is simply busy with other projects and doesn’t want to be found, nor do they have any intention of disclosing their real name.

What would happen if Satoshi came back?

Upon leaving the crypto scene, Satoshi also left behind a considerable stash of BTC spread across multiple wallets. The total amount of coins owned by Satoshi is estimated at around 1 million BTC that they had mined at a very early stage in Bitcoin’s existence when the block reward was considerably higher than the current rate that’s about to be further diminished by the upcoming halving.

Despite owing billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and placing them among the richest people in the world should they still be alive, Satoshi hasn’t touched one single coin held in these accounts. This raises further questions about why one would refrain from making use of one’s wealth and be so adamant about one’s anonymity.

Over the years, people have been sending small amounts of BTC, known as dust, to Satoshi’s wallets as a symbolic gesture. But on January 2024, an unknown user sent 26.9 BTC, worth a whopping $1.17 million at the time, to Satoshi’s Genesis wallet. Since the transaction took place on Bitcoin’s 15th anniversary, many took it as a generous present and a sign of appreciation for Bitcoin’s creator. However, given the large amount of BTC credited into Satoshi’s account, others speculated that Satoshi might be behind the transaction, planning a potential comeback.

So far, nothing like this has happened, but let’s just imagine for a moment that Satoshi is just laying low in some corner of the world, waiting patiently to stun the world with a sudden return. Or, entertaining another hypothesis, let’s assume that after doing some deep digging, an authority will bring Satoshi to light.

This will likely trigger a wave of excitement and euphoria in the market. The frenzy could drive prices up initially, but it could also augment Bitcoin’s volatility and, by extension, cause all other assets to behave erratically. Rocking the boat in an industry that is already known for its extreme price swings is not exactly an ideal scenario. Even if Satoshi doesn’t have any real power over Bitcoin given the decentralized nature of the blockchain, such a major event is definitely going to have a considerable influence on price trends, and there’s no telling how the market is going to react.

Back to reality

The fascination with Bitcoin’s inventor is never going to end unless their identity is going to be revealed at one point. And even then, the significance of their creation will make people want to know more about them. Whether this enigma is ever going to be solved or not, Satoshi has already reached symbol status and Bitcoin is a worldwide brand. The captivating story that Satoshi’s hidden identity has created only amplifies Bitcoin’s strange magnetism and makes us think that some things are better left unknown.